XXIV Meeting of the Central Bank Researchers Network
Agenda
Wednesday, October 30th, 2019 |
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| 08:30 - 09:00 | Registration | |
| 09:00 - 09:30 | Opening Ceremony (Hemiciclo I Room) Dr. Oscar Arce, General Director of Economics and Statistics, Banco de España | Remarks Dr. Santiago García-Verdú, Adviser to the General Manager, CEMLA |
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| 09:30 - 10:30 | Keynote Lecture (Hemiciclo I Room). A Dynamic Model for Macroprudential and Monetary Policy Analysis, Professor Dimitrios Tsomocos, Professor of Financial Economics and Fellow Saïd Business School and St. Edmund Hall University of Oxford | Presentation | |
| 10:30 - 11:00 | Coffee Break | |
| Hemiciclo I Room | Cibeles Entresuelo Room | |
| (1) MACROECONOMICS I | (2) MONETARY POLICY I | |
| Moderator: Daniel Parra (Banco de la República) Discussants will have 5 minutes |
Moderator: Adolfo Rodríguez-Vargas (Banco Central de Costa Rica) | |
| 11:00 - 11:40 | Financial Frictions and the Wealth Distribution Presentation | Paper Authors: Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, Samuel Hurtado, and Galo Nuño (Banco de España) Discussant: Santiago Bazdresch (Banco de México) | Presentation |
Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States: An Extension with Labor Market Hysteresis Presentation | Paper Authors: Ali Alichi (IMF), Hayk Avetisyan, Douglas Laxton, Shalva Mkhatrishvili, Armen Nurbekyan, Lusine Torosyan, and Hou Wang Discussant: Gergely Gánics (Banco de España) | Presentation |
| 11:40 - 12:20 | Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Capital Requirements Presentation | Paper Author: Jorge Pozo (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú) Discussant: Jorge Ponce (Banco Central del Uruguay) |
The Effect of Central Bank Foreign Exchange Interventions on Exchange Rate Volatility: Evidence from Costa Rica Presentation | Paper Authors: Mauro Pisu and Adolfo Rodríguez-Vargas (Banco Central de Costa Rica) Discussant: Carlos E. Castillo-Maldonado (Banco de Guatemala) | Presentation |
| 12:20 - 13:00 | Nonlinear Relationship between the Weather Phenomenon El Niño and Colombian Food Prices Presentation | Paper Authors: Davinson Abril, Luis Fernando Melo, and Daniel Parra (Banco de la República) Discussant: Francisco Alberto Ramírez de León (Banco Central de la República Dominicana) | Presentation |
Foreign Exchange Intervention Effectiveness in Guatemala under Inflation Targeting Presentation | Paper Authors: Carlos E. Castillo-Maldonado (Banco de Guatemala) and Edson R. Ortiz-Cardona Discussant: Adolfo Rodríguez-Vargas (Banco Central de Costa Rica) | Presentation |
| 13:00 - 14:30 | Lunch (Marqués de Cubas Hall) | |
| Hemiciclo I Room | Cibeles Entresuelo Room | |
| (3) MACROECONOMICS II | (4) MONETARY POLICY II | |
| Moderator: Galo Nuño (Banco de España) Discussants will have 5 minutes |
Moderator: Fernando Borraz (Banco Central del Uruguay) | |
| 14:30 - 15:10 | Time-Varying Effects of Commodities Prices in the Bolivian Economy Presentation | Paper Author: Mauricio Mora (Banco Central de Bolivia) Discussant: Santiago Bazdresch (Banco de México) | Presentation |
On the Interest Channel and the Global Financial Cycle for Emerging Market Economies Presentation | Paper Authors: Manuel Ramos-Francia, Santiago García-Verdú (CEMLA and Banco de México), and Manuel Sánchez-Martínez Discussant: Carlos Cantú (BIS) |
| 15:10 - 15:50 | Labor Demand Dynamics: The Costa Rican Case Presentation | Paper Authors: Alonso Alfaro, Santiago Campos, y Valerie Lankester (Banco Central de Costa Rica) Discussant: Mario Izquierdo (Banco de España) | Presentation |
Long Run Price or Variety Convergence? Presentation | Paper Authors: Fernando Borraz (Banco Central del Uruguay) and Leandro Zipitría Discussant: Jacopo Timini (Banco de España) | Presentation |
| 15:50 - 16:30 | A Framework for Debt-Maturity Management Presentation | Paper Authors: Saki Bigio, Galo Nuño (Banco de España), and Juan Passadore Discussant: Santiago Garcia-Verdú (CEMLA and Banco de México) | Presentation |
Monetary Policy and Sectoral Composition Presentation | Paper Authors: Cesar Blanco (Banco Central del Paraguay) and Sebastián Diz Discussant: Fernando Borraz (Banco Central del Uruguay) | Presentation |
| 16:30 - 17:00 | Coffee Break | |
| Hemiciclo I Room | Cibeles Entresuelo Room | |
| (5) INFLATION EXPECTATIONS | (6) FISCAL POLICY | |
| Moderator: Adolfo Rodríguez-Vargas (Banco Central de Costa Rica) Discussants will have 5 minutes |
Moderator: Ali Alichi (IMF) | |
| 17:00 - 17:40 | Forecasting Costa Rican Inflation with Machine Learning Methods Presentation | Paper Author: Adolfo Rodríguez-Vargas (Banco Central de Costa Rica) Discussant: Laura Zacheo (Banco Central del Uruguay) | Presentation |
Fiscal Regimes and Exchange Rates: A High-Frequency Identification Presentation | Paper Authors: Enrique Alberola, Carlos Cantú (BIS), and Paolo Cavallino Discussant: Santiago García-Verdú (CEMLA and Banco de México) | Presentation |
| 17:40 - 18:20 | Inattention, Disagreement and Internal (In) Consistency of Inflation Forecasts Presentation | Paper Authors: Fernando Borraz and Laura Zacheo (Banco Central del Uruguay) Discussant: Adolfo Rodríguez-Vargas (Banco Central de Costa Rica) | Presentation |
Dynamic Effects of the Costa Rican Fiscal Policy: The Case of a Small and Open Economy Presentation | Paper Authors: Valerie Lankester (Banco Central de Costa Rica) and Kerry Loaiza Discussant: Ali Alichi (IMF) | Presentation |
Thursday, October 31st, 2019 |
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| 8:00 - 9:00 | Keynote Lecture (Hemiciclo I Room). Household Balance Sheet Channels of Monetary Policy: A Back of the Envelope Calculation for the Euro Area, Professor Gianluca Violante Professor of Economics, Princeton University | Presentation |
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| 9:00 - 9:45 | Invited Lecture (Hemiciclo I Room). Quantification of systemic risk from overlapping portfolios in the financial system, Serafín Martínez Jaramillo CEMLA and Banco de México | Presentation |
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| 9:45 - 10:15 | Coffee Break | |
| Hemiciclo I Room | Cibeles Entresuelo Room | |
| (7) FINANCIAL ECONOMICS | (8) JOINT RESEARCH I: Fiscal Sustainability and Proposals for Institutional Change |
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| Moderator: Bernardus van Doornik (Banco Central do Brasil) Discussants will have 5 minutes |
Moderator: Ignacio Lozano-Espitia (Banco de la República) | |
| 10:15 - 10:55 | Financial Asset Correlations Presentation | Paper Authors: Santiago Bazdresch (Banco de México) and Alejandra Lelo de Larrea Discussant: Irene Roibas (Banco de España) | Presentation |
Fiscal Consolidation under High Debt in Latin America Presentation | Paper Authors: Luis Guirola (Banco de España) and Ivan Kataryniuk Discussant: Valerie Lankester Campos (Banco Central de Costa Rica) | Presentation |
| 10:55 - 11:35 | A Market-Based Term Structure of Expected Inflation Presentation | Paper Authors: Manuel Ramos-Francia, Santiago García-Verdú (CEMLA and Banco de México), and Manuel Sánchez-Martínez Discussant: Ricardo Gimeno (Banco de España) | Presentation |
Fiscal Sustainability Analysis and Reaction Function: The Costa Rican Case Presentation | Paper Authors: Valerie Lankester Campos (Banco Central de Costa Rica), Kerry Loaiza Marín, and Carlos Monge Badilla Discussant: Ivan Kataryniuk (Banco de España) | Presentation |
| 11:35 - 12:15 | Commercial and Financial Debt Network in Uruguay Presentation | Paper Authors: Andrea Barón, Victoria Landaberry, Rodrigo Lluberas, and Jorge Ponce (Banco Central del Uruguay) Discussant: Bernardus van Doornik (Banco Central do Brasil) | Presentation |
Debt Limit and Fiscal Space: Analysis for Colombia and Other Emerging Markets (Colombia) Presentation | Paper Authors: Ignacio Lozano-Espitia (Banco de la República) and J. Manuel Julio-Román Discussant: Ali Alichi (IMF) | Presentation |
| 12:15 - 14:15 | Long Lunch (Marqués de Cubas Hall) | |
| Hemiciclo I Room | Cibeles Entresuelo Room | |
| (9) BANKING | (10) JOINT RESEARCH II: Fiscal Sustainability and Proposals for Institutional change |
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| Moderator: Miguel Mello (Banco Central del Uruguay) Discussants will have 5 minutes |
Moderator: Francisco Ramírez (Banco Central de la República Dominicana) | |
| 14:15 - 14:55 | A Loan-level Analysis of Bank Lending in Mexico Presentation | Paper Authors: Carlos Cantú (BIS), Roberto Lobato, Calixto López, and Fabrizio López-Gallo Discussant: Jorge Ponce (Banco Central del Uruguay) |
Fiscal Sustainability and Proposal for Institutional Change: The Case for Jamaica Presentation | Paper Author: Prudence Serju-Thomas (Bank of Jamaica) Discussant: Ignacio Lozano-Espitia (Banco de la República) | Presentation |
| 14:55 - 15:35 | Credit Shock Propagation in Firm Networks: Evidence from Government Bank Credit Expansions Presentation | Paper Authors: Gustavo Cortes, Bernardus van Doornik (Banco Central do Brasil), and Thiago Silva Discussant: Serafín Martínez-Jaramillo (CEMLA and Banco de México) | Presentation |
Analysis of the Sustainability of Public Finances in Mexico |
| 15:35 - 16:15 | Technology, Structure and Competition in the Uruguayan Banking Industry Presentation | Paper Authors: Miguel Mello (Banco Central del Uruguay) and Jorge Ponce Discussant: Isabel Argimón (Banco de España) | Presentation |
Fiscal Rules as Alternatives for the Design of Fiscal Policy: The Case for Central America and the Dominican Republic Presentation | Paper Authors: Francisco Ramírez (Banco Central de la República Dominicana) and Henry Rosario Discussant: Luis Guirola (Banco de España) |
| 16:15 - 16:35 | Coffee Break | |
| Hemiciclo I Room | Cibeles Entresuelo Room | |
| (11) MISCELLANEOUS | (12) TRADE | |
| Moderator: Fernando Borraz (Banco Central del Uruguay) Discussants will have 5 minutes |
Moderator: Alonso Alfaro (Banco Central de Costa Rica) | |
| 16:35 - 17:15 | Cluster and Network Analysis for Business Models in the Mexican Banking System |
Free Trade Agreements and Latin American Trade (Creation and Diversion) and Welfare |
| 17:15 - 17:55 | Gentrifying Neighborhoods and Local Retail Prices |
The Effects of Joining Multinational Supply Chains: New Evidence from Firm-to-Firm Linkages Presentation | Paper Authors: Alonso Alfaro (Banco Central de Costa Rica), Isabela Manelici, and Jose Vásquez Discussant: Jacopo Timini (Banco de España) | Presentation |
| 17:55 - 18:35 | Effects of Inflation on Poverty in Mexico Presentation | Paper Author: Carlo Alcaraz (Banco de México) Discussant: Pedro del Río (Banco de España) | Presentation |
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| 18:35 - 19:05 | Closing Remarks at Hemiciclo I Room |
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