Course on Model-Based Monetary Policy and Forecasting

February 8-12, 2021

 

Monday, February 8

Testing Connectivity Issues

Opening Session
Mr. Christian Johnson
Senior Economist, IMF Institute of Capacity Development

Mr. Santiago Garcia Verdú
CEMLA

Mr. Ruy Lama
Senior Economist, IMF Institute of Capacity Development

Mr. Juan Pablo Medina
Consultant, IMF Institute of Capacity Development and Associate Professor, Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez

Pre-course Test Session

Session 1: Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS)

Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS)
Mr. Christian Johnson

  • FPAS components: databases, monitoring and reporting, short- and medium-term forecasting, communication and decision making
  • The role of the quarterly projection model (QPM)
 
Session 2: CPI Components and their Relative Prices

CPI Components and their Relative Prices
Mr. Ruy Lama

  • Core, food, and energy: inflation components and relative prices
  • Shocks to CPI components, first and second-round effects, policy responses
  • Transitory and permanent shocks in relative prices

Workshop: CPI Components and their Relative Prices

  • Model extension with CPI components and relative prices
  • Shocks in the QPM with CPI components

 

Tuesday, February 9

Session 3: Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes

Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes
Mr. Ruy Lama

  • Exchange rate management
  • The exchange rate as an operational target
  • FX interventions

Workshop: Model Properties under Different Policy Regimes

  • Transmission of shocks in the model

 

Wednesday, February 10

Session 4: Extending the Core Model: Fiscal Policy

Extending the Core Model: Fiscal Policy
 Mr. Christian Johnson

  • Fiscal rules and fiscal accounting
  • Long term trends and crowding out
  • Simulations

Workshop: Fiscal Extension

  • Fiscal satellite module codes
  • Fiscal expansion/consolidation scenarios

 

Thursday, February 11

Session 5: Macroeconomic Projections, Risk Analysis under Uncertainty (I)

Macroeconomic Projections, Risk Analysis under Uncertainty (I)
Mr. Juan Pablo Medina

  • Building macro scenarios for policy dialogue
  • Workshop: Scenario Formulation and Policy Analysis
  • Baseline forecast

 

Friday, February 12

Session 6:  Macroeconomic Projections, Risk Analysis under Uncertainty (II)

Macroeconomic Projections, Risk Analysis under Uncertainty (II)
Mr. Juan Pablo Medina

  • Baseline forecast and alternative scenarios: COVID-19

Workshop: Scenario Formulation and Policy Analysis

  • Design of alternative scenarios: COVID-19

Post-course Test and Course Evaluation

Closing Session