XVI Monetary Policy Managers (Digital) Meeting
CEMLA and Banco de la República
September 13 – 14, 2021
Videoconference
September 13, 2021
Introductory Remarks
Manuel Ramos-Francia, General Director, CEMLA.
Remarks
Juan José Ospina, Chief Officer, Office for Monetary Policy and
Economic Information, Banco de la República (Colombia).
Session I. Monetary Policy, A Bird’s-Eye View
Monetary Policy and its Perspectives in
Advanced
Economies
Óscar Arce, Director General for Economics, Statistics and Research,
Banco
de España.
How Urgent is Normalizing Monetary Policy in Latin
America?
Manuel Ramos-Francia, General Director, CEMLA.
Session II. Monetary Policy in EMEs in the times of COVID-19
Monetary Policy in times of Covid-19
Daniel Chiquiar, Director General of Economic Research, Banco de
México.
Monetary Policy and Economic Perspectives in Chile
Miguel Fuentes, Manager of International Analysis, Banco Central de
Chile.
Monetary Policy in Brazil in Extraordinary Times
André Minella, Head of the Research Department, Banco Central do
Brasil.
Session III. Keynote Presentations
Volatile International Capital Flows and Central Bank Actions
Linda Goldberg, Senior Vice President, Research Group Policy Leadership,
Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
September 14, 2021
Session IV. Keynote Presentations (continues)
The Rebirth of Inflation?
Neil Shearing, Chief Economist, Capital Economics.
EM Capital Flows Another Taper Tantrum?
Robin Brooks, Managing Director and Chief Economist, Institute of
International Finance.
Bond Flows at Risk in Latin America
Manuel Ramos-Francia, General Director, CEMLA.
Session V. Monetary Policy in EMEs in the times of COVID-19 (continues)
Monetary Policy Response to Covid in Colombia and its Macroeconomic
Outlook
Juan José Ospina, Chief Officer, Office for Monetary Policy and Economic
Information, Banco de la República (Colombia).
Peru: Monetary Policy Response and challenges to COVID-19
Adrián Armas, Central Manager of Economic Studies / Chief Economist,
Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
Session VI. General Discussion. Monetary Policy Challenges and Outlook
Chair: Manuel Ramos-Francia (CEMLA).
Participants
Daniel Chiquiar (Mexico)
Miguel Fuentes (Chile)
André Minella (Brazil)
Juan José Ospina (Colombia)
Adrián Armas (Peru)
Óscar Arce
Óscar Arce is the Director General of Economics, Statistics and Research at Banco de España, where he also has served as Associate Director General of Economics and Research, Director of Monetary and Financial Studies and as the Head of the Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting Division. Previously, he was the Director of the Research and Statistics Department at the Spanish Securities Markets Commission (CNMV), Deputy Director General at the Economic Bureau of the Spanish Prime Minister and Senior Economist at the Banco de España.
Mr. Arce holds a PhD in Economics from the London School of Economics and Political Science and a MSc Economics from University College London. He is an alternate member of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council, member of the ECB’s Monetary Policy Committee, and member of the EU’s Economic and Financial Committee. Before, he was involved in the work of several international bodies, including the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB), and the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO).
Adrián Armas
Adrián Armas has been Chief Economist of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) since 2005, except 2017-2018, when he was the Executive Director for Argentina, Bolivia,Chile, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay at the IMF Board. He has spent most of his career (since 1986) at the BCRP, where he was previously Head of the Monetary Policy Division (1997-2005) and Chief of the Financial Programming Section (1995-1997). He contributed to the design and implementation of Peru’s inflation targeting scheme and has written articles on this subject and others on central banking for the IMF, BIS, the LACEA Journal, and several central banks. He participated in IMF technical assistance missions as MCM Advisor in 2007-2017. He has taught Econometrics, International Economics, Macroeconomics, and Monetary Theory at several Peruvian universities. He holds an M.A. degree in Political Economy from Boston University (1992).
Robin Brooks
Robin Brooks is the Managing Director of Economic Research and the Chief Economist of the Institute of International Finance (IIF). In his role, he oversees the IIF’s macroeconomic analysis and serves as part of the IIF’s senior management team. Previously, he served as Chief FX Strategist at Goldman Sachs based in New York, where he was responsible for the firm’s foreign exchange forecasts and publishing international macro research. Prior to joining Goldman, Mr. Brooks was the FX strategist at Brevan Howard. Before joining the private sector, Mr. Brooks spent eight years as an economist at the International Monetary Fund, where he worked on the IMF’s fair value models for FX, published academic research and participated in missions to IMF program countries. Mr. Brooks earned his PhD in Economics from Yale University in 1998. He earned a BSc in Monetary Economics from the London School of Economics in 1993.
Daniel Chiquiar
Daniel Chiquiar is currently Director General of Economic Research at Banco de México. As Chief Economist of the Central Bank, he is the Chief Economic Adviser to the Governing Board. Among other responsibilities, he heads the Economic Research Division of Banco de México, leading and channeling the intellectual efforts aimed at contributing to the understanding of policy recommendations on current economic events and various issues such as growth, inflation, international trade, labor market, and monetary policy. Most of the research is used as the basis for recommendations to the Governing Board and is published in top academic journals.
He is an economist from the Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México (ITAM), where he graduated with honors in 1990. He later earned his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of California San Diego in 2003, majoring in international trade and macroeconomics. Most of his research has been published in top peer-reviewed academic journals in economics. He has also been professor at ITAM and Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas (CIDE) at the undergraduate and graduate levels. During his career, he has held professional appointments in both the private and public sectors. At Grupo BIMSA, he was appointed Vice President of Research, and later Director of Economic Policy in Mexico’s Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP). In 2003, he joined Banco de México as an Economic Researcher, advancing to his current position as Chief Economist.
Miguel Fuentes
Miguel Fuentes is the Manager of International Analysis at Banco Central de Chile. Previously he was Manager of Macroeconomic Analysis, Head of the Conjunctural Assessment Section of the Macroeconomic Analysis Unit and Senior Economist in the Economic Research Unit at Banco Central de Chile. He has also worked as a visiting researcher in the International Monetary Fund’s Research Department.
He was a Professor at the Economics Institute of the Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile and Editor of the university’s Business Macroeconomic Report (Informe Macroeconómico para la Empresa) (1998–1999). He has also taught courses in macroeconomics, econometrics and international economics completed in the undergraduate and graduate programs at the Universidad Católica de Chile and the Universidad Alberto Hurtado.
Mr. Fuentes graduated as Commercial Engineer with a major in economics (1997). He holds a Master’s Degree in Applied Economics, specializing in applied macroeconomics, from the Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile (PUC), (1998) and a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley (2004).
He has participated in numerous national and international seminars and published papers in international academic journals and books, on topics including stabilization policy, exchange rate regimes, and international trade.
Linda Goldberg
Linda Goldberg is a Senior Vice President at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Ms. Goldberg’s main areas of expertise are global banking, international capital flows, and the international roles of currencies. She is the co-chair of the International Banking Research Network, Bank for International Settlements Technical Advisor, CEPR Distinguished Fellow, and an NBER Research Associate. Linda is co-editor of the International Journal of Central Banking and on editorial boards of the Journal of Financial Intermediation and Journal of Financial Services Research. She also is on board of the Central Banking Economic Research Association, advisory board of the Academic Female Finance Committee of the American Finance Association and is the Vice President of the Association of Princeton Graduate Alumni. Linda previously engaged with the World Economic Forum, including as chair and vice chair of the Council on Global Economic Imbalances.
Linda has a Ph.D. in Economics from Princeton University, and a B.A. in Mathematics and Economics from Queens College CUNY, where she graduated Phi Beta Kappa and Summa Cum Laude.
André Minella
André Minella is the Head of the Research Department (Depep) of the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB). The Department is responsible for i. conducting research in areas such as macroeconomics, banking, and financial stability; ii. developing macroeconomic and financial models, and iii. providing projections and macroeconomic scenarios for the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom). He also makes regular presentations to the Financial Stability Committee (Comef) meetings. André previously worked as the Head of the International Affairs Department of the BCB, where, among other things, he was responsible for providing analysis of the global economy for the Board. He also worked as Deputy Secretary for Economic Policy at the Ministry of Finance of Brazil. André holds a Ph.D. degree in Economics from New York University. André has conducted research on macroeconomic modeling, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, inflation targeting, inflation expectations, real-time data, and capital flows. He has publications in venues such as the NBER Macroeconomics Annual, Journal of International Money and Finance, Economic Modelling, and Empirical Economics. He has also worked as a consultant for the IMF in the areas of inflation targeting and macroeconomic modeling. He was also assistant professor at Pontifical Catholic University Rio Grande do Sul (PUCRS).
Juan José Ospina
Juan José Ospina joined Banco de la República (Colombia) in 2017. He currently is the Chief Officer for Monetary Policy and Economic Information, where he runs the team that produces the bank's macroeconomic analysis and forecasts, makes the monetary policy recommendation to the Board of Governors, and writes the Monetary Policy Report. He is also in charge of a labor market research team and the production of most of the bank's official statistics.
Prior to this role, he also worked as the head of the Fiscal Analysis Unit and as a researcher at the Macroeconomic Modeling Department. His research interests include monetary policy, business cycle fluctuations, asset pricing, pension systems, and the formation of consumer's expectations.
His research work has been published in academic journals including Econometrica and the Journal of Political Economy. He has taught courses in finance, macroeconomics, and statistics at the University of Chicago, Universidad de los Andes, Universidad del Rosario, Universidad del Norte, and Universidad Externado de Colombia. He holds a PhD in economics and an MBA (with honors) from the University of Chicago and bachelor degrees (with honors) in economics and industrial engineering from Universidad de los Andes.
Manuel Ramos-Francia
Manuel Ramos-Francia has a B. A. in Economics (with highest honors) from the Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México (ITAM). He was awarded a Fulbright Scholarship for graduate studies in the United States. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Yale University, where he graduated in 1993, specializing in Advanced Economic Theory and Financial Economics.
He has been Professor of Economics, having taught Advanced Macroeconomics, Open Economy Macroeconomics, Monetary Theory and Policy, and Financial Economics, and Director of the Center for Analysis and Economic Research at ITAM in Mexico. Dr. Ramos-Francia has held several positions at the Ministry of Finance: Deputy Minister (for Revenues), Chief Economist, and Chief Adviser to the Minister of Finance. He joined Banco de México in 2001, first serving as a Senior Adviser to the Board, then as Director General for Economic Research (Chief Economist) and, from April 2011 to December 2018, as Vice-Governor and Member of the Board. Currently, he is the Director General of the Center for Latin American Monetary Studies (CEMLA).
He has given seminars at universities such as Yale Economics, Harvard Business, Harvard Law, Columbia Public Policy, the University of Chicago Business, and ITAM, among others. He has also given conferences and seminars at many central banks such as the Fed, the NY Fed, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Banque de France, and the central banks of Argentina, Ecuador, Jamaica, Peru, Guatemala, Turkey, and others, as well as at international financial organizations such as the IMF, the BIS, the World Bank, the IIF, and the IADB. Also, at organizations such as LACEA, LAMES, the International Economic Association (IEA), the Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee, and the Adam Smith Seminar. He has also been invited to be a member of the Bretton Woods Committee.
Manuel Ramos-Francia represented Mexico in the G20 Central Bank Deputies Group from 2010 to 2018. He was Chairman of the Deputies of the International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMFC) of the IMF from 2015 to 2017. Similarly, he presided over the Central Bank Deputies Group under Mexico's G20 Presidency in 2012. He was given the Professional Merit Service Award from ITAM in 2009.
He has published various articles on monetary policy, fiscal policy, trade and applied econometrics in refereed economics journals such as: Journal of Money Credit and Banking, Economics Letters, Journal of Financial Stability, and Quarterly Journal of Finance, and many others, as well as in specialized books. He has refereed for journals such as: Journal of Money, Credit and Banking; Empirical Economics; Review of World Economics; International Journal of Economic Sciences and Applied Research; The World Economy, and others. He is Editor-in-Chief of the Latin American Journal of Central Banking. Also, he was a member of the Association of the IJCB's (International Journal of Central Banking) Management Committee.
Neil Shearing
Neil Shearing is the Group Chief Economist and Director at Capital Economics. Prior to becoming Group Chief Economist, Neil was Chief Emerging Markets Economist and managed a team that won several awards for forecast accuracy. Before joining Capital Economics, he worked at HM Treasury as an economic adviser in various areas, including fiscal policy and global economics. He is also an Associate Fellow in the Global Economy and Finance Programme of Chatham House.
Neil’s main area of research interest is in analyzing and understanding structural shifts in the global economy. He presents regularly on the global economic and financial market outlook and is a well-known voice within the investment community. Neil has written articles in the Financial Times and a number of other newspapers, as well as appearing regularly on TV and radio.
He holds degrees in Economics from the University of York and the University of London and is a Fellow of the Royal Society of Arts.